Same Old... Same Old...

Most surprising thing today is that the Japanese Housewives did not have a wild session...  

-1.23% SBA
-0.38% Roth IRA

+0.02% DJA
+0.61% Nasdaq
+0.31% S&P 

+0.02% FTSE
-0.12% Eurofirst
+0.23% Nikkei
-1.62% Shanghai
-0.75% Hang Seng

+1.28% WTI
+1.18% Brent
-0.24% Gold
-0.46% Copper
-2.20% Corn

-0.55% DJT
-1.21% VIX

+1.05% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

48% Advancing Issues on NYSE
49% Declining Issues on NYSE
3% Unchanged

55% Up Volume
43% Down Volume
2% Unchanged

53% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq
43% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
4% Unchanged

58% Up Volume
40% Down Volume
2% Unchanged

The Bernanke Spoke & Even My Portfolios Went Up Today... But Maria...

I'm still not putting new capital to work here...

I'll believe the rally when my calls start bringing home the bacon.  Till then, it's still baloney...

Seems I'm not alone...  Harry Dent was just on CNBC saying that this looks very much like 2007 and something in China or Europe could trigger a global sell-off since the subprime crisis started with only four states.

If the Japanese Housewives followthrough with a wild buying spree overnight, my Japanese bank calls might still stand a chance.  But we'd pretty much need to see gains day after day in order for my NMR calls to bounce back before their 20 July 2013 expiry.

Probably not going to happen...


+3.75% SBA
+0.94% Roth IRA

+1.11% DJIA
+1.63% Nasdaq
+1.36% S&P 

+0.59% FTSE
+0.57% Eurofirst
+0.39% Nikkei
+3.23% Shanghai
+1.98% SENSEX
+2.55% Hang Seng

-1.77% WTI
-0.88% Brent
+2.97% Gold
+2.72% Copper
+0.74% Corn

Some major forex today:

+1.01% EUR/USD
+1.32% GBP/USD
-0.82% USD/JPY

+1.22% DJT
-1.41% VIX

-3.96% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

85% Advancing Issues on NYSE
14% Declining Issues on NYSE
1% Unchanged

84% Up Volume
16% Down Volume

69% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq
28% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
3% Unchanged

82% Up Volume
17% Down Volume
1% Unchanged

Disaster... Faster...

Once a get-rich-quick game for me, options have just as quickly erased a lot of my equity over a very short timeframe lately.  

First, I bought puts at the wrong time that were met with a whole bunch of sellers.  Then, I bought calls at the wrong time that were greeted with a whole bunch of sellers.  

Were the signs there?  If so, what were they? 

Perhaps the Dr J book I'm reading called 'How I Trade Options' will turn on the lightbulb for me.  Until then, I'm not going to put any new capital to work here.

It seems Bernanke The Maestro will allow the music to continue playing for now as the SPY is up over +0.53% in Extended Hours Trading.

Even with disappointing economic data, Shanghai managed an upswing and the pendulum is going in favour of oil as well with WTI leading the way.  

Still, there has been little change to my SDR and PER calls.


-0.74% SBA
-1.69% Roth IRA

-0.06% DJIA
+0.47% Nasdaq
+0.02% S&P 

-0.12% FTSE
+0.09% Eurofirst
-0.39% Nikkei
+2.17% Shanghai
-0.75% SENSEX
+1.07% Hang Seng

+2.55% WTI
+0.32% Brent
+0.81% Gold
+0.75% Copper
00.00% Corn

-0.72% DJT
-0.98% VIX

+1.90% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

52% Advancing Issues on NYSE
45% Declining Issues on NYSE
3% Unchanged

43% Up Volume
54% Down Volume
3% Unchanged


56% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq
40% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
4% Unchanged

55% Up Volume
44% Down Volume
1% Unchanged

J Lo & Behold...

No...  my portfolios continue their downtrend as the SPY continues to race higher.  In the blink of an eye, BAC is up above $13 again and LYG is down below $4 again as the Jeopardy theme song plays in the background.

Tomorrow, Bernanke will determine if the music stops and I haven't had a chance to get out of the calls I've come to regret.

72% of the stocks on the NYSE went up today and I had to go and choose the ones that went down...  Aaaaarrrrgggggghhh...  


+0.32% SBA
-1.21% Roth IRA

+0.50% DJIA
+0.56% Nasdaq
+0.72% S&P 

+0.98% FTSE
+0.79% Eurofirst
+2.58% Nikkei
+0.37% Shanghai
+0.59% SENSEX
+0.49% Hang Seng

+1.34% WTI
+0.64% Brent
+1.04% Gold
-0.98% Copper
0.00% Corn

No major forex moves

+2.26% DJT
-2.91% VIX

-0.57% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

72% Advancing Issues on NYSE
25% Declining Issues on NYSE
3% Unchanged

74% Up Volume
25% Down Volume
1% Unchanged

57% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq
38% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
5% Unchanged

60% Up Volume
39% Down Volume
1% Unchanged

The GOLs Are Driving...

Yes they are!  Who knew they would be going at 5 miles per hour?  

After an entire trading day, they finally got LYG to stay above $4 and we got a tiny bit of volume going on the LYG Jul 20 '13 $4 Calls.  It looks like these were mainly buyers and the spread is still $0.10, which is pretty stiff.

We all know that Higher Interest Rates + Higher Oil Prices = Recession.  So the question is: is this 2006 all over again - or is it 2007?  

The Economiss in me says that this economy can't withstand 4% interest rates...

Strange occurrences happened with gold and oil today.  Oil ended a week-long move up and gold suddenly appears to have found some support along with copper and corn.


-4.67% SBA
+0.17% Roth IRA

+0.59% DJIA
+0.16% Nasdaq
+0.53% S&P 

+1.17% FTSE
+1.39% Eurofirst
-1.40% Nikkei
-2.44% Shanghai
-0.88% SENSEX
-1.31% Hang Seng

-0.40% WTI
-0.68% Brent
+1.84% Gold
+1.19% Copper
+1.06% Corn

+0.37% EUR/USD
+0.44% GBP/USD

+0.13% DJT
-0.27% VIX

-2.58% 10-Year US Treasury Notes


59% Advancing Issues on NYSE
38% Declining Issues on NYSE
2% Unchanged

63% Up Volume
36% Down Volume
1% Unchanged


54% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq
43% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
3% Unchanged

51% Up Volume
45% Down Volume
4% Unchanged

Let's Go, LYG! Hit $4 Already...

Step on the pedal, GOLs...

This is the second day in a row that we're just pennies away from hitting $4, which would put my calls in the money...

On the Menu: Extra Stuff...

One of my neighborhood restaurants actually has 'Extra Stuff' listed on their menu.  I could use some Extra Stuff right now.  

Amidst a 195,000 print on NFPs, the S&P finally broke above its 50 SMA and closed above this key level for the first time since circa 19 June 2013, sending the 10-Year US Treasury Notes up +8.56%.  My portfolios continued to head south, sinking deeper and deeper into the fathomless, dark and cold abyss courtesy of ill-chosen calls and a declining VIX pressured by a failed MACD bullish divergence.

The sad thing about some of my calls is that there are 0 bids on many issues, which means I'm pretty much stuck until someone like Mike Khouw gets some volume going.  

Finally, instead of staring at the same data over and over again, I tried my hand at counting Elliott Waves.  Could we be headed towards a double top now back towards the year's SPY highs at 169.07 - which would finally lead to an ABC correction?  

I noticed that the October 2007 S&P high was more or less a 1.236 Fibonacci extension of the July 2006 low of 1240.  In a similar vein, the most recent S&P high of 1667.47 was very close to a 1.236 Fibonacci extension of the November 2013 low of 1359.  Eery?  Uncanny?

So does this mean that I've blinked and missed the market top?  

If we get lucky, we could see another SPY top that perhaps overshoots the previous high by 20 or 30 points to fake everyone out again - just like in 2007.  

If we don't get lucky and people continue selling calls, then I am secretly praying to the Good Lord that there will be an increase in volatility that will somehow white out my promiscuous trading sins.  

Even back in 2006, Unemployment Claims never fell below 300,000 for long, which means that to hope for anything better might just be a futile exercise this time around.  Maybe even Bernanke knows this?  Or maybe he knows better on how to continue to quantitative please the Market Makers.


I've said it once, but I'll say it again.  I'm spooked by the currency action going on even though I don't touch forex with an 18 foot pole anymore, but it all appears reminiscent of 2007 all over again.  Those were the days when GBP/USD hit 2.12 or thereabouts and the EUR/USD kicked it up to about 1.57.  USD/JPY was around 124 and then knife after knife, we got down to 1.43(?) on the GBP/USD and 109 on the USD/JPY in a very, very short time.

If only a light bulb would go on for me so I can get into some positions that will give me some short term profit-taking fun.  

Cramer's going to make me a Wall of Shamer - for sure:

-5.19% SBA
-2.29% Roth IRA

+0.98% DJIA
+1.04% Nasdaq
+1.02% S&P 

-0.72% FTSE
-1.31% Eurofirst
+2.08% Nikkei
+0.05% Shanghai
+0.44% SENSEX
+1.89% Hang Seng

+2.18% WTI
+2.07% Brent
-2.41% Gold
-2.87% Copper
+1.00% Corn

-0.65% EUR/USD
-1.10% GBP/USD
+1.16% USD/JPY
+0.50% EUR/JPY
-0.45% EUR/GBP

+1.54% DJT
-8.09% VIX

+8.56% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

53% Advancing Issues on NYSE
45% Declining Issues on NYSE
2% Unchanged

60% Up Volume
39% Down Volume
1% Unchanged

71% Advancing Issues on Nasdaq
25% Declining Issues on Nasdaq
4% Unchanged

69% Up Volume
30% Down Volume
1% Unchanged


From the Market Wizards David Ryan interview: "So, in the consolidation phase, decreasing volume is good.  If you continue to see very high volume, do you start thinking potential top?  Yes, because that shows that a lot of people are getting out of the stock.  You want an increase in volume when the stock breaks out, but you want a decrease in volume as the stock consolidates...  When the market, or a stock, is bottoming, you want to see increased volume combined with an absence of further price progress on the downside.  For example, if the Dow declines from 2200 to 2100, trades down to 2085 the next day, and then closes higher on increased volume, it demonstrates support.  It suggests that there are a lot of buyers coming in."

I Have Good News & Bad News For You, ForexDiva!

The bad news is that the client who was about to sign on the dotted line got cold feet and isn't going to do it anymore, but he still wants to meet me in New York.  The good news is that I have another potential client for you.  

So what's new?  It just sounds to me like she wants to come to New York really badly and is stringing me along.  If she mentions it one more time, there will be firecrackers!

What she doesn't know is that one part of my business might be acquired soon (maybe...  maybe... very early discussions, so don't get too excited here...) and I was thinking if she brings me results, I'll offer her full-time employment when the deal goes through.

But after just over a month of working her with, I've had it with this diva and my portfolio:

-0.85% SBA
-0.21% Roth IRA

+0.38% DJIA
+0.30% Nasdaq
+0.08% S&P 

-1.17% FTSE
-0.68% Eurofirst
-0.31% Nikkei
-0.61% Shanghai
-1.47% SENSEX
-2.48% Hang Seng

+1.49% WTI
+1.75% Brent
+0.31% Gold
+1.02% Copper
00.00% Corn

-0.31% DJT
-1.46% VIX

+1.30% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

39% Advancing Issues on NYSE
58% Declining Issues on NYSE
3% Unchanged 

46% Up Volume
52% Down Volume

Sleepy... Grumpy... Snooze...

After another sleepless night, my portfolio ended pressing the snooze button as the market failed to hold onto the green.  Just as my energy plays, PER and SDR, looked like they were about to start gaining upside momentum amidst continuing uncertainty in Egypt and chatter about potential geopolitical risks impacting the Suez Canal, which holds the key to millions of barrels of oil daily, we started losing altitude almost as quickly as the trading session started to wind down.  

Half day at school tomorrow, but no shortage of data with ADP, Unemployment Claims, US Trade Balance and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI all before nap time...

Bring your own sandwiches for you may not like what the High Frequency Traders and the Market Makers are cooking up for lunch at the NYSE cafeteria...

+0.63% SBA
-0.24% Roth IRA

-0.28% DJIA
-0.03% Nasdaq
-0.05% S&P 

-0.06% FTSE
-0.41% Eurofirst
+1.78% Nikkei
+0.57% Shanghai
-0.58% SENSEX
-0.70% Hang Seng

+1.67% WTI
+0.93% Brent
-0.91% Gold
-0.65% Copper
+2.52% Corn

-0.65% EUR/USD
+0.98% USD/JPY

-0.45% DJT
+0.43% VIX

-0.84% 10-Year US Treasury Notes

38% Advancing Issues on NYSE
60% Declining Issues on NYSE
2% Unchanged Issues on NYSE

40% Up Volume
60% Down Volume

Multiple Sarcasm: It Looks Like 16 Is The New 14...

At least when it comes to the VIX...

After some major moves to the upside for most of the day, all major indices failed to hold onto most of the day's gains, but still closed in the green save the Nasdaq, which was pretty alpha. 

The VIX is stubbornly holding onto the 16 level too and the MACD bullish divergence formation on the 10-day 15-minute chart is just on the verge of breaking out.

Not to be outdone, my portfolio continues to knife down and I'm kind of wishing I hadn't been so SLT-ty:


-1.70% SBA
-1.70% Roth IRA 

+1.49% FTSE
+0.99% Eurofirst
+1.28% Nikkei
+0.81% Shanghai
+0.94% SENSEX
+1.78% Hang Seng

+1.48% WTI
+0.88% Brent
+2.26% Gold
+3.43% Copper
-3.42% Corn

+0.42% EUR/USD
+0.42% USD/JPY
+0.83% EUR/JPY

+1.10% DJT
-3.26% VIX

+0.48% 10-Year US Treasury Notes