Quote Unquote Oh, You Make My Chart Stop!

I know just the thing to make me feel better!

I'm going to get new rose-coloured Sexy Librarian Type Glasses with dark red frames so I can give Tall European Men the Come Hither Yet Go Away Ice Ice Baby Look. Which one, you ask? Let's start with the Guys of London! It took months to get them down to 1.45, but within days of the Hung Parliament Incident, they're testing 1.50 again. That's alpha! The speed and the ferocity... it makes my chart stop!

I am still livid today and I should probably be in rehab for throwing those Naomi Campbell style trading tantrums the past few posts and wishing everyone and their word to your mothers a very big Bwahaha HTEL triple-A rated Wicked Witch of the West evil retracement. Sorry, I meant it, but I hope it didn't happen. At the end of the day, we can all be Happy Shiny BFF Forex Traders if we put the TETSOBs aside. I admit I've been an above average one.

This incident made me realise... I've always been afraid that the Miscalculated Risk Gene runs in my veins. Well, it seems it somewhat does and if I don't control it, I'll become # 1 Market Slut.

How unfair is it that after I got quote unquote liquidated, the market retraces right back to where it was before the quote unquote liquidation? But it's a market reality and not a stretch of the imagination. I don't even want to get into the extent to which it is unfair because I'll be able to write 50,000 dramatic pages on it, but I gave myself some financial dignity today by reinvigorating my trading account with some quote unquote capital. It is now a respectable three figures! Laugh all you want. I'm being transparent here. I might have been the Woman Who Couldn't Satisfy the GOL's Trend On Trend, but I'm not going to become the Woman Who Broke ForexDiva's Bank Account.

I still need time to cool off though. When I heat up, you don't want to be (anywhere) near me.

+0.62% on the standard brokerage account
-0.76% on the Roth IRA

Steam still rising from the top of my head...

I'm going to work up the courage to trade again and thank God that I didn't do anything even crazier like average into this trade.

Keep it up, GOL!

Gordon Brown, He's Gonna Step Down!

The UK media is labelling this as a desperate attempt, which obviously means they've never seen my blog.

The way I blew up my forex account (again) was like... a trip down a long flight of GBP/USD stairs that led directly to slipping on a pebble that brought me down the USD/CHF cliff.

I don't know what to do about my affair with the GOL, which was all Monopoly Turned Scrabble Turned Strip Poker - as in We See London, We See France, We See ForexDiva's APKS Stuff. GOL, do you still want me to ride your trend? I really need you to keep it up this time and if you'd like to do it slow, I'm OK with that.

I won the consolation prize today:

+4.97% on the standard brokerage account
+3.21% on the Roth IRA


Did it matter that I was semi-spot-on about a few market metrics recently?

Today happened to be a day when a few of these observations, such as money flowing into European markets, demonstrated by Eurofirst 300 being up +7.39%, and an exodus from gold into oil + exodus from bonds (also a few posts back) actually occurred, but it never matters if you don't end up making money from it! This trend needs to continue for the rally to be sustainable. I have a secret metric that I'm looking for to happen, but I'm going to keep it top secret... Oh, whatever! I'll tell you, but you have to promise to keep it top secret... It is for yields on short term CDs on the secondary market to increase, which would signify investor confidence taking flight. If people are willing to get out of their CDs, then that is the investing equivalent of asking a guy if he'd like to come up for coffee. Money has to flow somewhere - into equities, real estate, etc. I am patiently waiting for this Magical + Blissful Moment. Who knows if I'm right?

I am still so ticked off about how I got plucked with my long GBP/USD trendship with benefits in the making and how bimbo I was. Most people won't understand how I can be so ticked off about a bike size account trade (i.e. one mini lot material), but I was working so hard on that account and I was going to scale it up after my PDO was done. I was convinced that this would be my personal pivot point where I would break all previous resistance levels and resistance would finally become support. Now, I'm not even in the mood to look for my absolute favourite trade setups - the little black dress and the little red dress.

Even Brian Dolan was saying how there would be a relief rally after the Hung Parliament Incident. Well, those were not his exact words, but something to that effect.

I'm going to have to listen to what Professor Dolan has to say from now on! I don't want to get plucked again!

WTF to the 300 Trillionth Power...

I chose to be in a pipless marriage with the GOL for a few weeks and then got into a de-ranged marriage with USD/CHF and now my full account is plucked.

It doesn't get more bimbo than this, does it?

Darling, you couldn't have saved us with your remarks last week?

Whatever!

This was one bit of tuition, but I've learned a very important lesson. If you got liquidated or quote unquote stopped out, which is just a euphemism for getting plucked, and the price moves in your favour again very quickly, the best thing you can do is pluck the market right back by getting in as closely as possible in your original direction at the level you got plucked. In my case, I was stuck in that de-ranged marriage with Franc and couldn't get in at 1.451 right before Non-Farm Pay Time last week.

Am I ticked off in that WTF to the 300 Trillionth Power way? Square that and then times it by 500 trillion and add another 800 billion! Who cares if that equation made sense or not? The point is I am effing ticked off - especially at those GOCP (Greek Oedipus Complex People).

But I am now going to stop being disappointed in myself, acknowledge my part in the plucking, and finally learn not to get plucked again. God knows I've been plucking a lot of people myself over the past four months. Bwahaha, Short Sellers! You'll get plucked all the way to 1.70 on GBP/USD and 1.45 on EUR/USD.

Confessional Booth Time, Volume 090510: Unbreak My Chart

OMG... why? Why? I need to tell my portfolio to behave! Skip my JNSB is you'd like and scroll right to the chart of the matter.

Oh, I have my 28 cm Hermes Kelly Sellier in black box calf leather with palladium hardware, by the way. I didn't bring the wrong amount of cash or anything bimbo of the sort. In fact, the sales representative reinforced my purchase decision by complimenting me on how I am totally the Hermes Kelly type. Obviously, she's never read my blog.

It especially seems like a total hollow victory after evaluating my mediocre performance over the past few weeks. And to make matters worse, having it in my hands made me realise the Hermes Birkin is the one I really, really, really want. I'm already dreaming about a bespoke two-tone Hermes Birkin in blue jean togo leather with contrast stitching, canvas, and palladium hardware. It's not that I don't like my Hermes Kelly. It's perfect for business meetings, but it is a bit of a structured bag and I have a frazzled, beautiful disaster type of style. It's also a bit of an impractical bag. I keep pushing all the wrong buttons lately. Not just one - all! I'm asking myself do I know how to appreciate what I have? And I ask myself... will I finally get my hands on the Hermes Birkin that I really want?

Since this Gold-diggin' PIIGS + European Debt Crisis + Hung Parliament + Wrong-Button-Pressin' Incident, my portfolio became # 1 Drama Queen and swooned under pressure. Was it a computer glitch or human error? And for the like-minded cynics out there, was it a deliberate act of bwahaha HTEL triple-A rated evil designed to fake everyone and their word to your mothers out before the biggest rally to hit Wall Street hits? Sorry, Mommy Mom, I didn't mean you!

-11% on the standard brokerage

-24% on the Roth IRA

-952.6 pips on the forex trading account

My only saving grace was selling a partial position in BAC after analysing some options chains and realising I could potentially buy back between now and July at around the $14 or $15 level. So, I sold at $17 something, even if it wasn't at the recent top. But I am a woman with a long term rose-coloured vision, so I'm going to buy more C when I get a chance.

I'd like to now take you through how I forked over my moola to the forex market, who told me, "keep the change," with just two trades. This was a longstanding pipless marriage and I hedged myself with a USD/CHF long at precisely the wrong time at precisely the wrong level. And I was hanging on and on to a trade that I thought would be Hung Parliament defying.

Recall when the market first started really getting panicky over the European Debt Crisis. This was about the 1.52 something level on GBP/USD about the time of 11 April 2010, where I saw a beautiful contradictorian bearish divergence formation. Some news on a bailout came out that weekend and plucked everyone up to the high 1.54s on the Sunday open. I waited for a retracement and S&R'ed at 1.5443, only to realise if I had stayed in my GBP/USD short, I would have still been able to make money a day or two later.

Still, there were a minimum of 5 touches higher than my entry thereafter, but because I was looking at a Weekly Chart where we had some bullish divergence going on, I thought I'd be able to ride this up to at least last year's high of 1.70. I got really worked up with the APKS Woman Who Rode the GOL's Trend with An Account the Size of a Bike fantasies with the potential double bottom that was forming on the Weekly Chart. The bullish divergence turned the stove right on and I thought seasonality was on my side!

In hindsight, a few milestones should have signalled that the writing was on the wall and I have to admit, Happy Shiny Forex Traders, I have sinned! Even up until 27 April, the Guys of London were still touching my 1.55 erogenous zone and I thought we'd finally get some rapid consummation to the upside when they Wham Bam Thank You Ma'am'ed us with a break below the 1.54 zone, which was also very smokin', due to some Fraidy Cat Hung Parliament Excuse. The market pronounced us Ran and Strife. I know how bad that one is, OK?

So, how should I have seen the writing that was clearly and avidly on the wall?

First, FOMC resulted in a USD positive move. When is Bernanke ever USD positive? Shift in sentiment right there, but I was blinded by love.

People stopped looking at UK data because it was just so poor and started getting fraidy about the GOL's Hung Parliament. Who knew it would be so big and get so out of hand, causing me to run my bike right into the proverbial 18 foot pole? The truth is, if the market thinks it's big, it doesn't matter if it's actually big. Perception is what matters and in this case, poor UK data + Hung Parliament = trend on trend, but I was blinded by the promise of risk:reward.

Technically, the break below 1.53 should have told me to hit the golden parachute. I had that level drawn on my Weekly Chart and ignored it due to TETSOB and because 1.54 and 1.55 were still in play.

So why should I even listen to myself right now? I have no idea. All I know is that if I traded myself into this, I can trade myself out of it.

This Weekly Chart bullish divergence is still on according to me. At the end of the day, lack of money management and TETSOB in overdrive killed me. I thought the USD/CHF long would save me, but my premonition of a temporary shift in correlation between GBP/USD and USD/CHF hung my account out to dry.

Here's the chart that will hopefully unpluck my heart and my trading account.

You will notice that the MACD, RSI, and Stochastic bullish divergences are still strong and we are on our path to the beautiful formation of a double bottom. So I ask myself what is the best way to get back into this trade? And I ask myself... if this European Debt Crisis news gets further out of control, will we test the 1.35 level on GBP/USD? Because if Lehman caused a move to 1.35, then this European Debt Crisis excuse should normally cause a retest of that area - or even break below it. However, we most likely will not see 1.35 as the Greece bailout legislation process is now taking momentum.

Tomorrow's effing BOE and I got plucked out of my GBP/USD long with a flippin' fakeout that retraced a minimum of 300 pips to the upside on the market close. I helped the market with the plucking by hedging myself with a USD/CHF long, which tied up some more capital and caused the deterioriation of my bike to accelerate. I ask myself why I got hit at the market's lowest point. I ask myself why I didn't take action earlier when the market touched 1.55 or above a minimum of 5 times. When I look at it that way, I know I've got no one else to blame but myself.

I am highly disappointed in myself, frustrated that I couldn't even make it to BOE after weeks of being in this pipless marriage and I want revenge and I want it now. But it might be better for me to wait. Will BOE calm the GOL or will they keep running downhill to 1.35?

I don't know yet. All I know is that if I stop trading now, I'm done for good. If I develop some semblance of a calm, cool, and collected c'est comme ca type philosophy, it will work to my advantage. I walked into the year with a winning attitude and I'm not going to walk out a loser.

It's no secret that I favour crazy strategies, so with European currencies at such favourable levels, it's now a good time for US investors to make investments in undervalued, overlooked European financial stocks. And once this process takes hold, European currencies will have to strenghten against the USD again. It's also a good time for China to buy EUR if they are looking to diversify their USD holdings. Patriotism aside, look long and hard at US debt levels and tell me that's not scarier than a European sovereign debt default. When it comes down to it, the majority of the industrialised world is in debt, so who can you trust... Gold-diggin' Sinks?

For now...

Men of New York = still waters run deep

GOL = Fraidier Than Moi

Guys of London, we're better than this one forkin' trade! Shall we run their stops now? Oh, but you guys look so tempting at the 1.45 level...

I should like to touch that, but I will wait to see if you're naughty or nice...

WTF to the 500,553.111 Power

The hills are alive, but my bike of a forex trading account is now officially a pre-historic fossilised relic. It'll take ice ages before I get back on my high horse. -952.6 pips even though I was hedged. What? One can't have a small account?

Men of New York, quit playing games with my charts! Alas, the game has become Scrabble and I was still playing Monopoly.

A long time back, my colleague was telling us a joke about how some drunk guy walking around the Venetian Canal Shoppes was saying that the ceiling looked like the Sixteenth Chapel. It took me a while to get it since I'm so bimbo, but after I finally got it, it has me laughing every time I think about it. For a while, I thought I finally 'got' trading, but what I really got was played today. The move down on GBP/USD was a total fakeout in my diva opinion and my Franc couldn't even save me! I tried to buy back at 1.451 right before Non-Farm Pay Time, but I wasn't the one getting paid.

I hate myself for not taking action when I had mentioned a potential fakeout south of the 1.48 belt a few posts back. But I really feel bad for the guy who pressed the wrong button yesterday and caused the DJIA flop. People will be laughing at him for years to come. We're in the same boat, he and I! We're wrong-button-pressers.

When you don't follow price action, your account is subject to subtraction.

When you don't yield to price action, your account becomes a fraction.

When you don't respect price action, it's fatal attraction.

I'll save the Confessional Booth for later. I've got too much reckoning to do. So many mistakes, such a big TETSOB, so much unfulfilled trading plaisir. For now, I am going to clear my head and get ready for my Hermes Kelly Weekend.

I'm already strategising the perfect revenge on those who sold me at 1.54! But that's kind of like threatening to kill someone with my rose-coloured glasses. Anyway, I'm not the violent type. I would much rather utilise my other underutilised and tantalising talents in the kitchen, on the rooptop, in the elevator, in the Porsche, on the private jet, in the shower, etc.

Where else? On the trading floor!

Have a good weekend, Happy Shiny Forex Traders!

Charm Me, Don't Harm Me!

The exit polls are predicting a Hung Parliament.

So, it appears I am in a very precarious position right now, but I'm really trying to keep a level head, although I must say I belong in the confessional booth for having a TETSOEU. Was the writing on the wall all this time? Most likely. I was only getting about 67 pips at most with my GBP/USD long and was expecting the GOL to brush their pips against mine a bit more. They never sort of did, which should have been a signal that this position isn't as hot as I had thought. But that 1.54 level appeared so erogenous to me. I'd been looking at the Weekly Chart and I told myself Weekly Chart In, Weekly Chart Out.

This is going to be a rather expensive learning experience and one would presume I would have learned from my previous trades. This is what we call Cooked In One Wok or even a Wok of Bubbles in Cantonese.

Tomorrow's Non-Farm Pay Day and if my account still exists then, I'm going to look for another trading opportunity. For the moment, I am hedged - long GBP/USD and long USD/CHF. If I had a bigger account, I would be in a better position being more heavily into USD/CHF. But if I add more USD/CHF and have both positions move against me somehow, I'll be killing myself even faster.

The other day, I was working on a Flash presentation at work and I couldn't get our logo to appear sharp. I tried 50,000 different ways and spent about three to four hours on it. Anyone else would have given up, but I decided to try one more method before finally giving up because I wouldn't have been able to live with myself if the presentation wasn't perfectly sharp even if no one else noticed. And that one last method worked!

It's the same with trading. We can be looking at a loss that is eroding our account size and our confidence, and our vision could be less than sharp, but if we surrender to the loss on the spot, we are done for good. If we step back and at least try to minimise the impact, we may be able to make it. And if we don't, at least we knew it wasn't without effort - however futile those efforts might have been.

Today:

-2.09% on the standard brokerage
-3.56% on the Roth IRA
At some point over -700 pips on the GBP/USD


Regardless of whether I still have an account tomorrow, I'll still be trading, although I have secret hopes of the GOL justifying my love like right here, right now, which is obviously a tell-tale sign of utter denial. But I have not spent so much time on learning technical analysis to be deleted from the face of the earth with just one trade. There has been unrelentless selling pressure for God knows how long without any meaningful retracement on GBP/USD and most of the arguments were based on political uncertainty. Usually I like the action to be horizontal, but vertical could be just as fun.

GOL, charm me... don't harm me! It's my Hermes Kelly Weekend and I don't want to go into Hermes with one less account although I'll still be financially dignified.

And don't forget Mother's Day is Sunday! (Is it even Mother's Day in the UK?!)

If anyone else is into denial, this article would be totally up your alley: Why the US Is Worse Off Than Greece.

I have to say that the issues affecting the EU are more political than monetary - as they often are, which means that we can almost expect with 90% certainty that this will be a long and drawn out affair. It's not going to be solved gracefully or cost-effectively. And that is what socialism is all about, isn't it? If you read any of the comments from UK citizens on popular UK media, everyone is fed up with high taxes and the burden that a wasteful and corrupt government is having on diligent people who actually add value to society.

If we allow the Democrats to run up spending in a similar way, we could be looking at an EU-size problem ourselves in a few years.

Do I digress? That was kind of a given... but a blown up account doesn't have to be.

At the Risk of Sounding Like A Milkaholic...

Did that just happen? LOL.

I mean the 950 point drop in DJIA? Or was it me?

I just hedged myself with a long USD/CHF trade, which will hopefully slow down the deterioration of my bike.

At the height of the EUR/USD glory days, my boss and I were discussing converting my full salary to EUR. However, I told myself, with my luck, I would have done it at the market top and therefore only converted half of it. Sometimes, self-doubt works to our advantage!

Oh, but I should have doubted myself more these past few weeks...

My heart goes out to everyone with a large account! I promise I do not have the cash to trade against you...

It's Not Easy Being Queen...

The captain has turned on the fasten seatbelt sign. We are experiencing some unexpected turbulence. Please, everyone, return to your seats...

My tiny forex trading account got plucked today and my Mile High Club Fantasy turned into Kitchen Nightmares as I experience this annoying drawdown. I am keeping my eyes on the levels, but where are the London Alpha Males? They are fraidier than me and now the Men of New York have us backed against a wall. Talk about being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Will I be able to make it? And if I don't, I've recently started my own subsistence farm. No kidding. I've got a tiny garden where I'm growing some lettuce, potatoes, carrots, and arugula. I'll find a way to survive. Ah ah ah ah staying alive...

I am trying to fly below the radar for the time being though. After the UK Parliamentary Election, we have one less excuse to sell GBP/USD. Right now, though, we still have the whole trend on trend thing going on. Why did I fail to see this?

Trend 1: European Debt Crisis
Trend 2: Hung Parliament
Trend 3: Consecutive better than expected US data reports

Now my only option is to wait out the Hung Parliament Incident and pray that the Men of New York will tone down the alpha just a little. It's starting to hurt and this is not the MAT I'd envisioned happening. I'm going to have to look into a hedge if this GBP/USD long moves against me any more.

However, notice that once a few good reports start coming in better than expected, the market will start setting itself up for disappointment. It's like me with my trading. A few months of winning will get you overly optimistic and counting your chickens before they hatch.

I'm still looking for some buying opportunities in the equities market though. It's inconceivable to me that anything could be worse than this European Debt Crisis, but that's kind of what we said about Lehman. And this, of course, is shaping up to be the second (or third?) biggest buying opportunity of our lives.

Don't forget that this Friday is Non-Farm Pay Day!

Whatever happens, I am resolutely determined to trade myself out of this. I will view this as a learning opportunity and I shall not give up on myself, my financial future, and my Hermes Kelly, which I will collect this weekend! Initially, I thought it would be somewhat of a hollow victory. But I am not going to even let myself think that way. I've worked so many years for it and I am not just about my accounts and my mediocre trading. I am now a diversified, financially dignified woman, albeit with a shrinking bike of a forex account!

Diversified and financially dignified nonetheless!

Stay tuned for some more cliffhangers...

Big Red

My GBP/USD position was so red today, which together with the unpalatable decline in my portfolio, has left me questioning my trading identity. Was I Miss Equities 2010 / JBQ / ForexDiva solely due to a few months of quote unquote luck? Weeks of doing my own homework and touching the market's plaisir points - all gone because of my TETSOB.

-1.0% on the standard brokerage
-0.97% on the Roth IRA

From bwahaha to boohoohoo... even if you read the news, you can still get boo-ed.

However, I like to look at the long term. So, I'm sticking by my GBP Men and looking for buying opportunities in the stock market.

Yields on Municipals AA were up tremendously today at +12.5%. The moola seemed to have flowed into Corporates AA, where yields dropped from 6.1% to 5.55%.

I am actually glad that I realised that an account my size can't possibly compete on the same level as larger accounts. I had asked myself what if GBP/USD retraces significantly? Would I be able to weather this storm? The most recent lows were below 1.48 and if it does a fakeout before we find out how hung that parliament is, I'm not only dinosaur material, but will go down in history as the Woman Who Tried to Ride the GOL's Trend with An Account the Size of A Bike. And because of this doubt, I didn't average in to this trade just yet. In hindsight, it was a good move. The stove's hot!

Hopefully, this time next week, my sweet GOL will be singing me a very special song:

Don't cry for me, ForexDiva!
The truth is I never left you...
Through your persistence,
We'll go the distance.
My ForexDiva...


But now, it's very painful indeed.

Guys of London, we will survive!

Oh, in case anyone was wondering, my top secret FWF stock is not Good Times Restaurants (GTIM).

GOL, GOL, Wherefore Art Thou?

Oh, my sweet Guys of London... I hope you're not experiencing a hangover from your extended weekend at the pub. We will find out how hung your parliament is this week, won't we? Then, we won't have any excuses not to get some more plaisir out of this pipless marriage. This position shall finally be consummated and I'm kind of looking forward to it - my first time riding a trend! I hope it'll be a substantial one... with a lot of toe-curlin' Wake the Neighbours type profit potential.



I've decided to hang on a bit more to this GBP/USD position due to a combination of TETSOB and because I don't believe political uncertainty will have much of a long term influence on currencies. Moreover, BOE is on 10 May. After the Parliamentary Election results come in, we'll have at least one day to get out of this trade at a minimum of breaking even.

After the Awful Bigoted Woman Incident, the hung parliament excuse has faded to the background somewhat and the contagion fear excuse is now style of the week. The USD seems to have been the beneficiary, but interestingly, after looking at bond yields today vs. bond yields as of Wednesday, 28 April, yields on 30 year Municipals AAA and Municipals AA have since increased.


This means that prices are falling in these two bond categories whilst 30 year Municipals A yields have been relatively stable. If the AAA and AA categories are being sold, then the market can't be as fearful as the market indices would like us to believe. And the yield increase was substantial in terms of percentage gain. On the 30 year Municipals AAA, we have a difference of 8.13% and on the Municipals AA, we have a difference of 9.09%. Quite a remarkable jump if you ask me.


The past few days have been devastating for my portfolio though. Over the past week, I've seen a minimum of a 6% decline on my Roth IRA and about a 3% decline on my standard brokerage account. It was definitely painful.

I have been doing some more research and sold a partial position in BAC today. I am planning to either get into some more C, get into some more of my top secret FWF sector stock, or purchase BAC back on a retracement to $14 or $15.

It's been a long, hard journey, but we'll all make it one day! Even though the entire world seems to be on the collapse - what, with every "role model" somehow turning out to be one big disappointment in recent times from Tiger Woods (the best thing to have happened to product endorsements) to the Catholic Church to BP to Gold-diggin' Socks.

Let's turn on some bubble gum pop and dance like the Muppet Babies, fellow Happy Shiny BFF Forex Traders...